Aaron Isaà Plex Sulá, BS
PhD Student
Plant Pathology Department, Global Food Systems Institute, 3Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
Gainesville, FL, USA
Ozgur Batuman, PhD
Associate Professor
Southwest Florida Research and Education Center, University of Florida
Immokalee, Florida, United States
Gilles Cellier
PhD
ANSES, Plant Health Laboratory, Saint-Pierre, Reunion Island
Saint-Pierre, Reunion
Nicholas S. Dufault, PhD
Associate Professor
University of Florida, Plant Pathology
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Berea A. Etherton, PhD
PhD
Plant Pathology Department, Global Food Systems Institute, 3Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Amanda Hodges
PhD
Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Tiffany Lowe-Power (she/her/hers)
Asst Professor
Department of Plant Pathology, University of California
Davis, CA, USA
John D. McVay
PhD
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) Division of Plant Industry
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Romaric Armel Mouafo-Tchinda, PhD
PhD
Plant Pathology Department, Global Food Systems Institute, 3Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
GAINESVILLE, Florida, United States
Mathews Paret, PhD
Professor
University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Cory Penca
PhD
USDA APHIS PPQ S&T 13601 Old Cutler Road
Miami, Florida, United States
Kyle Schroeder
BSc
Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Eleni Stilian
BSc
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Los Angeles, California, United States
Piotr Suder
BSc
Department of Statistical Science, Duke University
Durham, North Carolina, United States
Yu Takeuchi
Associate Director for Innovations
Center for Integrated Pest Management, North Carolina State University
Raleigh, North Carolina, United States
Henri Tonnang
PhD
International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe)
Nairobi, Nairobi Area, Kenya
Ying Wang
PhD
Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Karen A. Garrett, PhD
Preeminent Professor
Plant Pathology Department, Global Food Systems Institute, 3Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
Gainesville, Florida, United States
Emerging and transboundary pathogens are a growing concern to global agroecosystem protection. Invasion risk analyses usually evaluate single drivers of pathogen invasion, but they rarely integrate across drivers to quantify the potential worldwide spread of transboundary pathogens. We propose GIRAF 1.0 to quantify, integrate, and map four geographic risk factors for pathogen invasions – international trade of high-risk commodities, cropland accessibility to ports and cities, multi-host landscapes, and abiotic factors. We applied GIRAF 1.0 to evaluate potential scenarios for the global introduction, establishment, and spread of four transboundary pathogens. These pathogens have a pandemic potential, affecting food security crops, ornamental industries, and natural ecosystems. They represent a range of infection strategies, transmission modes, and taxonomic groups. We found that abiotic factors are favorable in Europe and Southeast Asia for Ralstonia solanacearum phylotype II sequevar 1, Tomato brown rugose fruit virus, and Potato spindle tuber viroid, and in the Americas and Western Europe for Harringtonia lauricola. Host communities for each pathogen are in at least 22-41% of Earth’s land surface. The United States ranked among the top five countries with a high trade-mediated (re)introduction potential for the first three pathogens. GIRAF 1.0 provides key starting points for (pro)active surveillance prioritization and global biosecurity against the potential expansion of invasive pathogens, which could strengthen transnational phytosanitary agencies and food industries.