P-008 - Assessment of risk factors affecting the occurrence of fire blight in South Korea

Fire blight was first observed in South Korea in 2015 on pear trees in Anseong, Gyeonggi Province, and on apple trees in Jecheon, Chungbuk Province. By 2024, the disease had spread to 37 cities. Classified as a quarantine disease, fire blight is being managed through government-led disease control efforts. However, the disease continues to spread. As a result, there is a need to develop a system for risk-based surveillance. This study aims to evaluate the factors that contributed to the occurrence of fire blight in Chungbuk Province over the past five years, including weather data, tree age, farming practices, and the speed of diagnosis and control. The goal is to identify key risk factors and use this information to develop a risk-based surveillance system. The analysis of weather data revealed that lower temperatures during the flowering period were correlated with fire blight occurrence, while sudden weather events, such as hail were linked to the sharp increase in fire blight cases in 2023. In addition, changes in farming practices influenced the disease's spread, with external labor and their working methods being significant factors. Shortening the time for diagnosis and disease control allowed for quicker responses, which helped reduce fire blight cases. This study highlights how various factors interact to influence the occurrence of fire blight, suggesting that future disease control and surveillance strategies should consider these factors for more effective management.