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ViewAttendees 2

TECHNICAL SESSION: Global Spread, Risk, and Regulatory

Bayesian Approaches for Estimating Foc TR4 Spread: Assessing Biosecurity Interventions for Fusarium Wilt of Banana in Colombia

Tuesday, August 5, 2025
3:45 PM - 4:00 PM HST
Location: Room 313 A

    Presenting Author(s)

  • JR

    Jacobo Robledo

    Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida
    Gainesville, Florida, United States

    • Author(s)

  • KG

    Karen A. Garrett, PhD

    Preeminent Professor
    Plant Pathology Department, Global Food Systems Institute, 3Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
    Gainesville, Florida, United States

  • MB

    Monica Betancourt Vazquez

    AGROSAVIA
    Mosquera, Cundinamarca, Colombia

Abstract Text: Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense Tropical Race 4 (Foc TR4) poses a significant threat to banana and plantain production in Colombia, with implications for international markets and local food security. We developed a discrete‐time stochastic susceptible-infected (SI) model that integrates spatially explicit transmission pathways—including planting material trade, stakeholder mobility, and cell-specific environmental suitability—and used a Bayesian framework with MCMC estimation to estimate key dispersal parameters across epidemic stages. Our analysis indicates that the overall transmission rate and geographic spread of TR4 are lower than those of non–soil borne diseases, consistent with current literature. Moreover, our results reveal that biosecurity measures reduce the pathogen’s weekly transmission rate by a factor of 7 when implemented after the first detection, and by up to 24 when applied preemptively in areas that were initially pathogen-free. This approach to estimating dispersal parameters can be useful for many pathosystems, especially those that have multiple dispersal mechanisms across scales. The data-driven estimates in this research not only enhance predictive modeling and risk analysis but also inform targeted management strategies. The results highlight the need to formalize planting material trade and strengthen stakeholder biosecurity to safeguard Colombia’s food security.